Wednesday 4pm - Weekend Snow Update

4pm update: The latest GFS has come down with no significant changes, the 0z runs will be a little more telling later tonight.  This output keeps some 6-8 inch snow totals right around the Quad Cities...

And by the way, if you're following the model runs with us at CBS4 here's how the time works:

z time or Zulu time or GMT or UTC time basically mean the same thing.  No matter where you are on Earth 0z happens at the same moment.  It's not like 9am Eastern Standard Time being the same time as 8am Central Standard time...

This makes it easier to follow model runs when comparing the Euro data and the American model data...It's quick and easy to compare apples to apples, in other words the 0z GFS run vs the 0z Euro run.  As opposed to the euro run that was initiated at 6am local time in England vs the GFS run that was initiated at 6am in the United States...

Finally, the difference right now from the Quad Cities' time to z time is 6 hours.  0z on the 19th of December is actually 6pm on the 18th here in the Quad Cities!

18z GFS run
 

An interesting trend in the latest model runs, both the GFS and now the Euro are pushing the heaviest snows further North.  After a few days of looking like the heaviest totals would be around or South of the Quad Cities, if this trend keeps up the heaviest snows could fall from SE Iowa to SE Wisconsin and end up slightly North of the Quad Cities.

It's important to point out though, at this point in the game these are simply model runs and guidance on what COULD happen, these snow forecasts are not to be taken literally yet.  This trend is something to watch out for when later model runs come out...

This morning's Euro

Morning GFS

One final note, the GFS had been coming in with lighter snow totals than the Euro, but now the GFS is starting to put out heavier totals as well...so while the location of those heaviest snows is not yet pinned down, the likelihood of heavy snow somewhere within 100 miles of the Quad Cities is going up! 

The GFS runs again around noon, with output available later this afternoon and the Euro won't be available again until late tonight...