Tuesday, December 31, 2013

New Year's Day Snow

After a fairly quiet (but cold) New Year's Eve in the Quad Cities our New Year's Day will be much snowier!  Another quick moving shot of snow will really pile up from late in the morning through early evening.  A Winter Weather Adv is in effect for most of the area from 6am through 6pm. 

Here's one of our in-house model runs showing 3-4 inches of snow around the Quad Cities, with higher amounts to the South.

Now the CBS4 forecast for snow on Wednesday...

Remember, these totals are for New Year's Day only, the snow that's fallen tonight is not included in this forecast! 

Overall it looks like snow will be the biggest problem on Wednesday...


This December Is One For The Record Book

December 2013 in the Quad Cities is going to be remembered as a very cold and snowy one. 

Temperatures are running more than five degrees below average and now this December ranks as one of the snowiest Decembers on record.

While we expect more snow to fall before midnight, the 1.6" that fell officially in the Quad Cities Monday evening pushes us to up to 13.8" for December, which now ranks as the 15th snowiest on record.

Light to moderate snow will fall this afternoon, tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night.

Here is the latest snowfall projection from the CBS4 weather team.  This does not include yesterday's snow.
This is new snow.

Happy New Year!

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Monday, December 30, 2013

Monday Snow Totals

Here are some snow totals for Monday from across the area.  Most of us started off sunny and cold, and then snow started falling by afternoon.  The accumulation is now done for most of us, and amounts from 1-2 inches were very common all across the area.  With temps hovering around 10° it was a light, fluffy snow.  I heard a few people comment on how pretty it was - because it was so dry you could see a nice sparkle in the new snow! 

The next 12 hours will be dry, before we get ready for the next round of snow Tuesday night!  Those totals should be heaviest North of the Quad Cities and that's where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect Tuesday into Wednesday (Happy New Year!)

Be careful and make sure you have a DD if you're heading out for New Year's Eve, roads will be covered in snow in a lot of spots...

More Snow and Cold

The roller coaster ride of temperatures we experienced in December will continue into the first part of 2014.

With one more day left in December 2013, temperatures are running more than five degrees below average in the Quad Cities.  Monday marked the seventh morning in December with lows below zero.

This is a shot of ice on the cold Mississippi River.

Light snow is possible today and early tonight with accumulations ranging from less than one inch south of the Quad Cities to around an inch in the metro area and 1-2" north of the Quad Cities.

However, a longer duration snow is likely to develop Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday.  It's early in the game, but this snow event looks more impressive and several inches are likely.

We only need 1.4" of snow before midnight tomorrow night for this to rank as one of the fifteen snowiest Decembers on record in the Quad Cities.

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Sunday, December 29, 2013

A Lot of Cold...Some Snow

The arctic cold front swept through the area on Sunday morning, and has dropped temperatures anywhere between 25° and 40° from late Saturday evening.
Temperature difference 9PM Saturday 12/28 vs Sunday 9PM 12/29
Temperatures Sunday night will dip well below zero, and factoring in the wind chill it will feel more like -15° to -30° which has prompted a Wind Chill Advisory through noon Monday.

The cold will stick with us for much of the week.  We'll also be stuck in northwesterly flow which is going to bring multiple clipper systems through the area.  The first one is set to arrive later tomorrow afternoon and evening, which could drop up to an inch of snow north of the Quad Cities, perhaps an isolated inch and a half or two inches.  Here in the Quad Cities I think a good half inch or less can be expected.  Here's the RPM model output:
Most times these clipper have very limited moisture and are fast movers so they don't really drop too much snow.  However, a stronger disturbance will move through later Tuesday through much of Wednesday that has the potential to drop a few inches of snow across the area.  However, there is some disagreement with the track and exactly where the heavier band will set up, so stay tuned to the CBS4 Weather Team for updates!

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Big Changes Sunday

Saturday was a beautiful day for late December standards in the Quad Cities.  The temperature reached 46° here in the Quad Cities, and even approached 50° in southern hometowns.
High temperature's Saturday 12/28/13
Hopefully you were able to get out and enjoy those temperatures, because they are a thing of the past and we will not be anywhere close to them in at least a couple weeks.  That's because we have an arctic cold front headed to the Quad Cities.  It will sweep through by sunrise Sunday, leaving us with falling temperature throughout the day.
Saturday evening around 8pm, cold front in NW Iowa
It's clear to see from the graphic above where the cold front is situated (Sat. evening).  This front doesn't have very much moisture to work with but we will still see a few flurries and light snow showers, especially north of Interstate 80.  Behind the front winds will pick up from the northwest anywhere between 15 to 25 mph, gusting over 30mph at time, creating wind chills well below zero in many areas.
A "Wind Chill Advisory" goes into effect at 6AM Sunday for Cedar, Jefferson, Johnson and Washington counties in Iowa and lasts through Noon Monday.  I suspect the rest of the area will get in on the advisory later tomorrow afternoon or evening.  Wind chills could be anywhere from -10° to -30°!

A few chances for snow exists this week as we will be stuck in a northwesterly flow out of Canada, bringing a parade of clipper systems that could leave a little accumulation.  Details to follow in the next couple days.

Stay warm!

Friday, December 27, 2013

Weekend Outlook

Our warming trend continues into Saturday, but things change Sunday!

After hitting 36° in the Quad Cities Thursday, highs today will approach 40°.  And, it gets even milder Saturday.

However, the warm-up will be short-lived.  An Arctic cold front passing through early Sunday and it will bring falling temperatures from the low-to-mid-20s early in the day to the single digits by afternoon.  In addition to the colder weather, the winds will be rather blustery.  Light snow or flurries are also possible.

By Monday morning, lows will be around -10° in the Quad Cities and even colder to the northwest.  And, that doesn't even factor in the wind.  It'll feel more like -20° to -30°.

Enjoy your weekend.

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Thursday, December 26, 2013

If You Don't Like the Weather in the Midwest...

You may have heard some variation of the saying, "If you don't like the weather in the Midwest, just wait 15 minutes." 

Friday morning we'll wake up to seasonable temperatures in the teens, but with southwesterly winds and plenty of sunshine we'll warm up quickly into the middle and upper 30s.  On Saturday we'll be just a few degrees warmer near 40° and with less snow pack southwest of the QC temperatures may exceed the 40° mark.

If you're a fan of the cold weather, you're in luck.  An arctic cold front with limited moisture and lift has its eyes on the Quad Cities very early Sunday morning.  Temperatures will be in the 20s overnight Saturday, and will continue to fall during the morning, afternoon & evening hours Sunday; dropping below zero Sunday night into Monday.  The latest data coming in shows the Quad Cities buckled under the cold weather for much of next week.

Here's the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for days 6 through 10, showing the brunt of the really cold weather will be in the northern Great Lakes region.

Snow Cover This Christmas

We definitely enjoyed a White Christmas in the Quad Cities thanks to the snow last weekend.  And, we weren't alone. 

Here is the current snow cover map of the United States (at least, the lower 48).  Anywhere you see any shade of blue indicates where there's enough snow on the ground to qualify as a "White Christmas".

Right now, 40% of the country is covered by snow.  Last year, on December 26th, 61% of the country had snow cover.

However, from 2003-2006, less than 30% of the country was snow-covered on December 26th.

Some light snow or flurries is possible today, but no accumulation is expected.

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Christmas Day Climate Stats

The CBS4 Weather team wishes you a Merry Christmas!  We hope you enjoyed the holiday.
I thought I'd give a few stats from Christmas days past.  The coldest high temperature every on Christmas was -2° back in 1983, while the coldest low temperature occurred just 13 years ago in 2000 at -18°.  The warmest temperature ever was 59° in the very warm year of 1936 (the same year we broke our all time record high in the Quad Cities of 111°!).

Since 1872, the most snow that has been on the ground at once was 12 inches, and that was back in 1909.  Multiple years have had no snow on the ground.  On average, the Quad Cities has 2" of snow on the ground; this Christmas there was a snow depth around 5" at the airport in Moline, and we saw a few snow showers Christmas afternoon.  Catch more climate stats from our friends at the National Weather Service by clicking here.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Bitter Cold Replaced By Light Snow

The bitterly cold temperatures will ease today, tonight, and Christmas Day.  We woke up to lows in the -5° to -20° range Tuesday morning, but wind chills were even colder at -15° to -35°.  That is dangerously cold!

Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and light snow will develop tonight and continue into Christmas morning.  More snow showers or flurries are possible Christmas afternoon and, again, Thursday evening.

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Monday, December 23, 2013

Definitely A "White Christmas"

The 5.5" of snow that officially fell in the Quad Cities Sunday pushes us up to 12.1" for the month of December (the winter total is at 13.1").

That 12.1" for December is just outside the Top 15 snowiest Decembers on record in the Quad Cities, but we have more snow on the way.  To reach the Top 15, we need 13.6".

Light snow will be developing with a clipper system Tuesday night and early on Christmas Day.  Accumulations of 1-2" are likely.  The 2" totals will be north of the Quad Cities.

With the snow yesterday and the snow coming up Christmas Eve, these carolers outside my house are definitely singing about a "White Christmas".

CBS4 Meteorologist Anthony Peoples

Sunday, December 22, 2013

A Few Viewer Photos

Here are a few pictures of the snow from viewers.  If you have a weather photo you'd like to share, you can send them to weather@cbs4qc.com or you can post them on any of our Facebook Pages (Andy McCray, Anthony Peoples, or Kyle Kiel).
Taken by Sue Williams in Lone Tree, IA (12/22)
Taken by Stephen Burroughs on 5th Avenue in Moline
One of several photos taken by Paul Brooks in Muscatine

Weekend Snow Totals & Verification

The large winter storm that the CBS4 weather team had been tracking all week long has come and gone, leaving behind a blanket of fresh snow, just in time for Christmas.  With bitterly cold temperatures expected the next few days, a white Christmas is pretty much a guarantee!

Before I get into the specific snow totals, I just wanted to show you how we did forecasting this event.  This one was especially tough to nail down, because temperatures at the surface and about a mile up in the atmosphere were near or slightly above freezing, causing sleet and freezing rain.  Many hometowns, especially from the QC and points southeast saw a longer period of mixed precip, but the deformation snow band had several moderate to heavy bands of snow.
CBS4's Forecast Saturday Afternoon
Actual Snowfall Measurements ending Sunday
Overall, our forecast was pretty close to what actually occurred.  From what I've seen, no hometowns in our area received over 7", so that was a little high.  Below are some hometown totals from both sides of the river.  For a full list of totals from the National Weather Service, CLICK HERE.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Winter Storm Update (Sat. 8pm)

The winter storm that we've been advertising is finally here.  A Winter Storm Warning continues until Sunday at 6PM.  Tonight we've been getting reports of a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow across many hometowns, especially from the QC and points southeast.  As we go throughout the evening, we will gradually transition to all snow, and that snow will be moderate to heavy at times.  Here are a look at snowfalls you can expect by Sunday afternoon.
Areas SE of the Quad Cities will see considerably less due to the fact that the mixed precipitation is expected to last just a little longer.

The snow is expected to wrap up by midday Sunday here in the QC, but as you may have noticed our Winter Storm Warning continues until 6PM.  That's because winds will pick up out of the northwest, gusting to 30mph at times which will cause some blowing and drifting of the snow.  Travel will no doubt be treacherous early Sunday morning so if you have to, take it real slow.

Friday, December 20, 2013

10pm Friday Night Update Storm Update

10:15pm Update

The GFS is in now and it keeps the heavy snow band pretty close to the Quad cities...so the 5-8 inch range for the Quad Cities is still looking good! 

Previous Post:
There's nothing quite like a winter storm forecast...we see a plethora of model data, with some form of one update or another coming in pretty often.  There's no need to tweak the forecast with every single piece of data you get, but once you notice a trend it's always good to reevaluate your forecast.  With the data in so far tonight I have noticed a trend of shifting the heaviest snow just a little further West so I will make a slight adjustment to my snow forecast...it's not much but it is something to consider over the next couple model runs before the storm arrives!

Andy's forecast

Model Forecast

Friday Night Winter Storm Update

Here's what you need to know about this weekend's winter storm...we're looking at 5-8 inches falling in the Quad Cities and surrounding areas with lower totals to the SE.  The main reason for the lower totals will be more sleet and frz rain mixing in so it's not really a "better" weather forecast down there! 

The Winter Storm Warning goes from Sat 6pm through Sun 6pm.  While there could be a little sleet and frz rain before 6pm things will really go downhill starting Saturday evening.  The worst of the weather will be from 9pm Sat night through 7am on Sunday. 

Not only will we see snow, winds will gust close to 30 mph at times reducing visibility and blowing plowed snow right back onto some roads!

Bottom line - driving should be avoided Sat night and early Sunday, the weather will be bad in pretty much all directions around the Quad Cities!

If you have any questions look me up on FB, Twitter or just post your question right here on the blog! 

Winter Storm Update- Friday 10:45AM

The latest data coming in still suggest heavy snow for the Quad Cities area late Saturday night and into Sunday.  We're still looking at a wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow to start out the event Saturday evening, especially south an east of the Quad Cities.  Here are what the morning runs of the GFS and NAM have for the area.
Morning GFS indicates 4 to 6 inches, with the heaviest (in our area) falling near the QC
The morning run of the NAM is a bit more bullish--showing anywhere from 4 to 10+ inches of snow, with the heaviest just NW of the Quad Cities.
Right now, it's looking like the heaviest snow will fall here in the QC and especially northwest, where we're currently looking at 5 to 8 inches.  Further southeast where a bit more sleet and freezing rain is expected to mix in, 2 to 5 inches can be expected at this time.  Again, this storm is just getting its act together, so things can change.  A jog to 50 miles east or west can be the difference  of more or less snow.  Stay tuned to the blog and CBS4 later this afternoon for updates!

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Storm Update - Friday 1am

1am Update - 

All evening models are now in and the GFS AND EURO both drop heavy snow on the Quad Cities...and that means our heavy snow forecast is on track for the Quad Cities Saturday night and Sunday!  No changes to my forecast late tonight, and here's the Euro for good measure, it paints an even snowier picture in the Quad Cities than I do right now!

Previous Post 10pm - Here's the Thursday night storm update - now that the storm is within 48 hours of starting it's time to transition from weather model forecasts to the CBS4 weather forecast!  And after looking at all kinds of info on this storm for the last week almost, it now looks like we'll see between 5-8 inches of snow in the Quad Cities. 

Snow totals

The winds will be up to about 30 mph too, so we'll have blowing snow and visibility issues Saturday night and early Sunday also!

Storm Threats

Earlier today the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Quad Cities this weekend...Remember, things go downhill very quickly late Saturday evening!

Winter Storm Watch
Finally, thanks for checking the blog this week and staying up to date on what looks to be a high-impact storm this weekend!  Don't forget to spread the word by sharing this blog page or posting it to your FB page! 

Winter Storm Watch Issued for the Quad Cities

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Quad Cities...it's in effect from 6pm Saturday through 6pm Sunday.  We'll see a mix of snow/sleet late Saturday afternoon or early in the evening changing over to all snow by late Saturday night.  Travel will be dangerous in and around the Quad cities late Saturday and for most of Sunday.  Not only will we see 5-8" of snow, winds will be gusting to about 30 mph which will reduce visibilities to around a half a mile! 

Winter Storm Watch
This is the storm we've been talking about for most of the week and now that it's within 48 hours of beginning I'm finally comfortable putting out a snow total forecast...notice the lighter amounts SE of the quad Cities where more sleet and possibly freezing rain could linger, cutting down overall snow totals.
Snow forecast Sat night/Sunday
 We'll have updates throughout the day on Friday as the storm gets closer, and remember you can always find an updated video forecast, current warnings and an HD Radar loop at cbs4q.com - check out the weather page! 

1pm Thursday - Winter Storm Forecast Coming Together for the Weekend

Before I get to the weekend snow update remember there is a Freezing Rain Advisory tonight for the Quad Cities...the ice accumulation won't be heavy but even a little bit of ice can cause some headaches if you're out driving.  Be careful late this evening through Friday morning if you're on the roads!

Now the weekend storm - all morning model runs are now updated and it's looking more and more like a solid 5-8" snow for most places around the Quad Cities, including the metro area!  Here are the 3 different models, and note that their solutions are not all identical, but that's normal especially considering the fact we're still 48 hours away from the start of the snow.
Euro model

GFS Model

NAM Model
One thing that is still critical is where we see the most sleet and/or rain mixing in with the snow once the storm starts.  This could reduce some of the snow totals but right now it looks like even with a little sleet mixing in around the Quad Cities at the onset we will still see 5-8 inches of snow.

We've been talking about this storm for several days now, and there's been ample time for the models to downgrade the storm's potential...but as we get closer and closer the confidence goes up in a big snow in the Quad Cities Saturday night and Sunday!

TIMING THE STORM - Driving around the Quad Cities should be fine Saturday morning, and then we'll see a mix of sleet/rain/snow late in the afternoon quickly changing to all snow by Saturday late evening.  Conditions will be at their worst late Saturday night through noon on Sunday...Driving to Chicago will not be easy Saturday night or Sunday.  Honestly, it looks like just about everywhere within 100 miles of the Quad Cities will have travel problems Saturday night and Sunday!

Winter Weather Update (Thursday Morning)

Before we get a bit more into the storm this weekend, I wanted to update you on an icy situation for late tonight.  A Freezing Rain Advisory goes into effect for most of our counties from midnight to 6AM Friday.  Accumulations will be rather light, perhaps .01" or .02", but just that bit of ice can wreak havok on the roadways.  It might be a good idea to leave a little earlier than normal for your Friday morning commute.  Speaking of Friday morning, here is the Weather Prediction Center's outlook on the probability of at least 0.01" of ice (QC has a 70%-80% chance).
The freezing rain we see tomorrow should be out of the area by lunchtime, and we'll get a break from any precipitation Friday night and into the early evening hours on Saturday.  That's ahead of the next area of low pressure that is expected to travel just south east of the Quad Cities, putting us in the zone for snow.  However, Saturday evening temperatures will be near 32°, so we're thinking right now we could be seeing a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, snow or sleet to start the event.  Once temperature dip below freezing Saturday night, we'll switch over to all snow.  The snow could be heavy at time.  I am going to post one model run from this morning, which sets the heaviest snow (locally) just to the northwest of the Quad Cities.  This is NOT A FORECAST, just guidance at this point.  Some of the models have been giving less, some have been giving more.  We'll have a better idea within the next 12 to 24 hours on amounts and track. BUT, the models have been somewhat consistent on the track, so we're getting somewhere.  The ECMWF (European) model from last night takes the heavy snow northeast of the QC.
Chief Meteorologist Andy McCray will have more updates later this afternoon and evening on CBS4 and the blog.
-Meteorologist Kyle Kiel

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Wednesday Night Update on this Weekend's Winter Storm

1am Update:

And  now the Euro is available and with this evening's run it is pulling the storm significantly further North and West, and for the first time in a while it's taking the heaviest snow well West of the Quad Cities!  You can scroll down to see the GFS and the NAM, and note the fairly big discrepancy in where the heaviest snow falls.  What this means is more time's needed to iron out the details...but it is starting to look like we might have a rain/snow mix on Saturday before the precip changes over to all snow Saturday night or early Sunday.  That would keep snow totals down to something along the lines of 2-5" for the Quad Cities!

Late night Euro run

10pm Update: 

Here is your first look at the GFS snow forecast, freshly available for your viewing pleasure!  It looks the heaviest snow totals are down a bit, but still located right across the Quad Cities area...The model runs over the next 24-36 hours will really start to help us out as we pin down the forecast for snow totals this weekend...

GFS Wednesday Evening Update
Previous Post (8pm:)

There is still a very good chance of heavy snow this weekend in the Quad Cities...and travel late Saturday and Sunday could be very tricky!   Before the weekend gets here remember there could be a little freezing rain very early on Friday morning. 

Frz Rain possible Thursday night after midnight

Heavy Snow a very good possibility

The evening models are underway right now and the results are now starting to trickle in.  The 1st available data comes from the NAM, which is a shorter term American forecast model.  Here's the snow output from this model, note a minor change pulling some of the heavier snow back SE of the Quad Cities.  Importantly, this is the snow total thru the end of the model run, but this only goes through early Sunday morning!  More snow will fall Sunday afternoon...

The GFS and ECMWF model runs from tonight will be trickling in over the next couple hours, they'll offer more solid guidance on how much snow to expect around the Quad Cities this weekend.  Once they are available I will post them with an update to this blog post later tonight!