Thursday, December 19, 2013

1pm Thursday - Winter Storm Forecast Coming Together for the Weekend

Before I get to the weekend snow update remember there is a Freezing Rain Advisory tonight for the Quad Cities...the ice accumulation won't be heavy but even a little bit of ice can cause some headaches if you're out driving.  Be careful late this evening through Friday morning if you're on the roads!

Now the weekend storm - all morning model runs are now updated and it's looking more and more like a solid 5-8" snow for most places around the Quad Cities, including the metro area!  Here are the 3 different models, and note that their solutions are not all identical, but that's normal especially considering the fact we're still 48 hours away from the start of the snow.
Euro model

GFS Model

NAM Model
One thing that is still critical is where we see the most sleet and/or rain mixing in with the snow once the storm starts.  This could reduce some of the snow totals but right now it looks like even with a little sleet mixing in around the Quad Cities at the onset we will still see 5-8 inches of snow.

We've been talking about this storm for several days now, and there's been ample time for the models to downgrade the storm's potential...but as we get closer and closer the confidence goes up in a big snow in the Quad Cities Saturday night and Sunday!

TIMING THE STORM - Driving around the Quad Cities should be fine Saturday morning, and then we'll see a mix of sleet/rain/snow late in the afternoon quickly changing to all snow by Saturday late evening.  Conditions will be at their worst late Saturday night through noon on Sunday...Driving to Chicago will not be easy Saturday night or Sunday.  Honestly, it looks like just about everywhere within 100 miles of the Quad Cities will have travel problems Saturday night and Sunday!

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