Why is this winter so warm?

In this post we will discuss some large scale teleconnection patterns. We will go through what they are then we will wrap it up at the end. The first is El Nino/La Nina, this takes sea surface temperatures from the equatorial pacific ocean. Depending on the anomalies of the temperatures we can determine if its El Nino or La Nina. Above average temperatures indicate El Nino, which brings above average temps to the South-central and southeastern US, Below average temps in the Northwest and above average precipitation for the northern US (except the north-central US). La Nina of course does the opposite with drier conditions in the south.

The second teleconnection is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This measures differences in atmospheric pressure between a point over Greenland and another over the central north Atlantic. A strong positive phase trends towards above average temps in central Europe and the Middle East. Also above average precipitation in northern Europe and Scandinavia in Winter. The opposite is true in the NAO is neutral or negative.

So for this past winter we have been in a La Nina phase which is giving the mid west above average temps and drier conditions. This is especially noticeable in Texas where that are having extreme drought conditions. We are also in the positive phase for the NAO, this is proven correct with the cold and snowy winter in Eastern Europe and the mild winter in the eastern US.

Above are the current conditions of the NAO and La Nina. Forecasters are predicting La Nina to decrease and the NAO to become more neutral. This may seem like the nice weather will end , but it does look like we will continue to see the effects of La Nina and a positive NAO through the spring. So we can expect a mild entry into the Spring season.