Not Much Change...

There's not much change in the forecasted path for Hurricane Earl, and unfortunately the small changes probably aren't for the better! There's still a slight chance the hurricane could make landfall in the Outer Banks, NC (Thursday.) Now it's looking like there's a slight chance for landfall somewhere in New England as well (Late Friday!) We'll keep updating the blog ALL WEEK LONG as we track Hurricane Earl in the Atlantic!

Hurricane Earl

Now more than ever all East Coast eyes are on Hurricane Earl! The storm is a Category 4 Hurricane with winds of about 135 mph! It is moving W/NW for now and will eventually turn more to the NW over the next 24 hours. At that point in time it will be heading for the North Carolina coastline and should then turn back to the NE. This would keep it out over the ocean and spare NC from the worst weather. HOWEVER, it is now possible that before turning fully NE it could make landfall around the Outer Banks, providing a crushing blow to that portion of North Carolina. Hence, all eyes are on Hurricane Earl over the Atlantic Ocean!

1 map has the latest data from the NHC...and the other has different forecasts (colored lines) and a cone of possible direction the storm will take through the next 72 hours...

Here's the address for the National Hurricane Center...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

5 Years Ago - Hurricane Katrina

National Weather Service's Forecast the eve before landfall:
Hurricane KATRINA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST
FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS
EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM
WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA
EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES
SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY
UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY
FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST
PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH.

A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
902 MB...26.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA
COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM
CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

Yuck! Go Away Summer!

*Ted

Dry Air Moving Out

This is the water vapor imagery from Saturday. Where the map is black means dry air and the white means moist air.

*Ted

A Parade of Storms

Tropical systems this time of year tend to form off the coast of Northern Africa. This is a satellite image of that area showing three systems in the Atlantic Ocean and three more over the Sahara desert in Africa. It looks like its going to be a busy September!

*Ted

A Cool Night Coming Up!

We'll be near record lows by Thursday morning! It'll be a great night to open up the windows and the give the AC a break, after all it's probably been working overtime for the last couple months. Tonight though, no need for AC as we'll see the coolest temperatures we've seen in more than 3 months!

Cooldown has Begun!

After our hot and humid summer a much-anticipated cooldown has begun across the area. By Wednesday morning we'll be down in the 50s...and by Thursday morning we won't be too far away from the 40s! It is still August though and temperatures will warm back up over the weekend.

As of 3pm this afternoon the cold front has passed through the QC, hence the NW winds, lower dew points and falling temperatures from West to East!

Hometown Forecast for 8/23

If you want your Hometown Forecast just send us a picture from your town at weather@cbs4qc.com or tmcinerney@cbs4qc.com and you'll be featured next Sunday night on Ten at 10 on CBS4.

*Ted

3 Month Outlook...

As promised, here's the latest 3 month outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center...According to the climatologists/meteorologists there we're more likely to see a warmer than average fall, as opposed to a cooler than normal fall!

Looking Up For the Weekend!

We'll see a few storms through our Friday night in the QC but the worst of the weather this time will be passing by to our South! By Saturday morning the chance for showers/storms winds down, and things look great for the end of the weekend! For the latest check out 10 at Ten on CBS4 tonight! Remember you get the FULL FORECAST BEFORE our first commercial break!

September Outlook

For those that like to look ahead, specifically one month ahead, here's an updated forecast from the NWS Climate Prediction Center. According to that branch of the National Weather Service we have an ABOVE average chance of seeing a warmer than normal September. While this is not an actual forecast, it gives us an idea that the warmer than normal weather we've seen lately might not be done with just yet!

Here's their website if you want to check out a few other products they offer...otherwise I'll provide the SEPT, OCT, NOV outlook soon!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Weather in Your Backyard!

It's Wednesday so that means we're hitting the road for 'Weather in Your Backyard' This evening we'll be at a house in Rock Island, to find out exactly where we're at check out CBS4 News at 5!

A Much Needed Cool Down!

Hometown Forecast for Monday

If you want your Hometown Forecast just send us a picture from your town at weather@cbs4qc.com or tmcinerney@cbs4qc.com and you'll be featured next Sunday night on Ten at 10 on CBS4.

*Ted

The Skunk River causing major flooding in SE Iowa Now!

Augusta was hit hard this past winter with ice jams. Now with a lot of rain on Friday night with the combination of the waters moving in from central Iowa's historic floods it has sent the river well over its banks. I'll keep an eye on the river levels as you can too with the link above... but for now it's great news that there is not much rain in the forecast.

CBS4 Meteorologist Ted McInerney

Severe Storms Heading Toward QCA

As of 2:30 Friday afternoon a line of severe thunderstroms is coming together West of the Quad Cities, and it's heading East at about 30 mph! That means the line of stroms should arrive in the QC between 4 and 6pm...once the storms arrive they will produce damaging winds and very heavy rain, along with frequent lightning. The entire area is under a Severe T-Storm Watch until 9 pm...

Another 24 Hours...

Relief is getting closer...but that won't make Friday feel any cooler outside! We're looking at dangerously hot and humid conditions through Friday afternoon before the chance for showers and storms arrives Friday evening. The storms will be developing along a cold front that will drop temperatures a little bit for Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday another surge of cooler weather arrives and should make things feel GREAT outside early next week!

Something To See...

The Perseid Meteor Shower peaks this week! Especially Wednesday night and Thursday night we cold see up to 60 'shooting stars' per hour! Conditions should be pretty good for checking out the meteors, and you probably won't even need a jacket!

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING!

As if it hasn't been hot enough over the last few days it will get EVEN HOTTER Thursday and Friday! Without the cooling benefit from thunderstorms or the clouds they produce temperatures will soar into the lower and mid 90s with high humidity levels. Heat Index values will be between 105-110 and that has prompted an Excessive Heat Warning for the Quad Cities!

Now some good news - a cold front will sweep through the area Friday night into Saturday. This will bring the chance for showers/storms and much cooler weather follows for the end of the weekend...

So - Have you had enough of the heat and humidity? Cast your vote on the weather page at cbs4qc.com. So far most people have said "Yes, when does fall begin!"

More Hot Weather

The hot and sticky weather is here to stay, for at least a few more days. The worst of the heat and humidity is locked in place just South of the Quad Cities...counties shaded in yellow are under a Heat Advisory through THURSDAY evening!

Tropics Update...

The NHC is watching a few areas for potential development over the next few days...Click here to visit the National Hurricane Center's website.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Sunday Night/Monday Morning Rains

Here's a look at radar estimates on how much rain fell over the area late last night. Most of the heavy stuff stayed on the Iowa side of the Mississippi River.

More Hot Weather Coming Up!

After a short break from the heat and humidity it's about to warm up dramatically again! Starting Saturday temperatures will be above normal and by early next week we're looking at mid 90s! The heat won't stop there though, it should be warm through the middle of August...here's a map from the Climate Prediction Center showing temperatures Aug. 11-15.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for most of the area until Tuesday at 1pm. Heavy rain is a distinct possibility tonight after midnight...some totals could approach 3 inches! While this will slow the fall of some area rivers it shouldn't create too big of a rise, as long as the heavy rain is confined to Monday night and Tuesday morning. There's another chance for storms on Wednesday but that round of storms should not be quite as bad...